October Outlook: Why Now Could Be the Time to Buy in Arizona 🏡
There’s a strong case that fall 2025 may be one of the best buying windows in recent years for Arizona real estate. With mortgage rates easing and buyer demand still muted, today’s market conditions are creating opportunities that may not last into 2026.
Mortgage Rate Trends and Outlook
Mortgage rates have steadily improved through late summer and early fall, dipping into the 6.2%–6.5% range—a welcome shift from the 6.6%+ levels we saw just months ago. This softening has been fueled by cooling inflation and shifting Federal Reserve expectations.
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae projects rates will finish the year near 6.4%–6.5%, with the potential to reach 6.0% by late 2026, and some forecasts suggesting even lower. For buyers, this means affordability is improving now, with the added option to refinance later if rates decline further.
Arizona’s Market Conditions
Arizona’s housing market in 2025 has seen inventory climb to levels not seen in over a decade. Statewide, listings are up more than 20% year-over-year, while Phoenix metro inventory surged to a 10-year high.
As of June, the statewide median sale price hovered around $444,500, slightly lower than last year. The luxury market has seen even greater supply, with some segments up 40% or more in available listings. For buyers, this translates to more options, stronger negotiating power, and far less competition than in prior years.
Why Acting Now Matters
This unique combination—falling rates plus subdued demand—is unlikely to last. As rates continue drifting lower into 2026, more buyers are expected to jump back in, tightening inventory and putting upward pressure on prices, especially in high-demand markets like Scottsdale and Flagstaff.
For today’s buyers, that means an opportunity to “buy low,” secure favorable terms, and later refinance into potentially lower rates—all while avoiding bidding wars and rising prices.
The bottom line: Fall 2025 may be a rare window to make your move in Arizona real estate.
