September Deep Dive

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Posted on September 13, 2023 by Laura Lucky

September is  here, and we’re likely to see an increase in inventory and buyer activity, plus we typically see a boost in buyer activity when temperatures drop below 100 degrees.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, this can be a great time. Buyers are excited to see an increase in inventory. Sellers will see an increase in buyer activity plus increased inventory so they can find their next home. Many sellers have been sitting still due to worries that they won’t find a home to move into. Hold on to hope that we should see some opportunities increasing this month. Sellers are also reluctant because of increasing interest rates. The ability to predict interest rates is beyond my scope and while so many economists thought we’d see some relief by this summer/fall, it is yet to be seen. We’ve had a few dips, but then they bounce back.

Because inventory has been low, sales have also been low and oftentimes people assume that prices will fall and we’re going to have a bubble. Note the quote below from the Cromford Report after the July data was posted.

REAL ESTATE DATA AS OF August 1, 2023:

•Active Listings:
11,241 versus 17,957 last year –
down 37% – and down 2.6%
from 11,545 last month

•Under Contract Listings:
7,546 versus 8,058 last year –
down 6.4% – and down 4.0% from 7,858 last month

•Monthly Sales:
5,906 versus 6,190 last year –
down 4.6% – and down 21% from 7,452 last month

“Once we get to the end of September and it starts to cool down, the luxury market will be fully contributing to the price numbers again and we will probably be reporting positive annual appreciation once more.”

“Some badly informed observers still think there is a bubble popping situation ahead, but they completely misunderstand the situation. For prices to fall, we have to have an excess supply compared to demand. Even though demand is very weak, supply actually got 2.6% smaller over the last month. There is very low delinquency in residential real estate lending right now, so it takes a ridiculous leap of great imagination to believe that foreclosures are going to have any significant effect on supply in the foreseeable future.”

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