What To Expect for Housing as 2022 Wraps Up

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Posted on October 19, 2022 by Laura Lucky

Prices hit their peak in May 2022, shortly after mortgage rates hit 5% and before they peaked over 6% in June. Once that happened, buyer demand dropped dramatically and the reflection in prices started to show a trend downward. Now mortgage rates are near 7% and sale price per square foot is down 9.6% over the course of 4 months, currently measuring less than 1% higher than January 2022 and representing the elimination of appreciation achieved from January through May.

66% of active sellers in the MLS (new homes excluded) have owned their home for 2 years or longer. This means that even with the most recent downturn in price, the 2-year appreciation rate from September 2020 to September 2022 is still 40.3% based on per square foot measures, and the median sale price is $112,000 higher, indicating most sellers have enough equity to shoulder the added costs to sell in this marketplace.

Looking Forward:

We’d like to believe the market will do what it did following the 2012 recovery period. And that is, get back to the sustainable 4 to 5% average long term appreciation (seen both locally and nationally) and not the 2007-08 crash in the market that essentially wiped out the staggering 45% gains of 2004-05.

Since we can’t know how much of a ‘correction’ we’re going to see over the next several months, if you need to sell I would not be gambling on ‘recovery’ in the near term. Since the gains have been so substantial.  It also may be wise to sell sooner than later to preserve what gains you can.
If you would like to discuss your property in more detail and get a market analysis for your home please reach out to The Luckys at 602-320-8415 or email


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  • Matt Lucky
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    7669 E Pinnacle Peak Rd Suite 110
    Scottsdale, AZ 85255

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